Next Soarable Ed Levin?

[Karl_A]

Not for a few days, stay tuned.

[Alan]

A couple of us flew Ed Levin yesterday while 99% of the rest of the flying population stampeded for the coast. There were a lot of workable thermals in the area although a bit broken up. I circled over the field behind the farmhouse for about 15 minutes, and others found lift around the 600' hill. One PG got about 800-1000 feet over launch. It was all thermal -- not much in the way of ridge lift.

Right now there are lots of nice fluffy clouds in the sky over EL, but the wind is pretty far north. What this club needs is an H3 site in the bay area that is soarable when the wind is N.

[Ryan]

Marina was so nice this weekend, coming in due west every day... You should've come on out..
Diablo was good too;)
Ryan

[slopeskimmer]

...

[Karl_A]

Forecasted highs for San Jose from Weather Underground http://www.wunderground.com/US/CA/San_Jose.html are

Thursday 65
Friday 65
Saturday 61
Sunday 65
Monday 70

indicating cooler and likely more unstable and soarable air for Saturday.

NWS discussion http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/forecasts/displ ... tr&pil=afd says

A TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SAT..

'TROF' is NWS for Trough: An elongated area of relatively low atmospheric pressure. Often colder and more unstable than the air in front of it. A 'Front', as in 'cold front' or 'warm front' is the boundary between two air masses, named for the advancing air mass.

Saturday looks like the day, but it is still a couple days away, things could change.

[bdunn]

I am thinking sunday, what with the wind being in the south and the 20% chance of rain on the coast. You could well see me there !

[bdunn]

But thats not to say tomorrow won't be good too.
What do I know ? I am sitting here in my underware with a beer, doing my taxes on a friday night !

[Karl_A]

EXTRA! EXTRA!

EXPERTS BAFFLED! PUNDITS BEFUDDLED!

MODEL SOLUTIONS ... DEPICT THE TROUGH AXIS TO ENTER THE OREGON COAST
AND NOR CAL BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA BY TOMORROW EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY...THE ATMOSPHERE SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY STABLE SO DON`T
EXPECT WIDE SPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

The timing is good with the front moving into the SF Bay Area Saturday evening but the 'FAIRLY STABLE DON`T EXPECT WIDE SPREAD CONVECTION' part doesn't sound good. Frontal passage Saturday evening and then light southerly wind Sunday and more southerly wind Monday isn't the usual thing. Saturday might or might not be more of a Mission day due to westerly wind with Sunday or even Monday the day to be at Ed Levin. This one isn't giving me any sense of what it will do.

I'll have a look at the sounding early tomorrow morning (Saturday). For anyone thinking of giving Ed Levin a try the advice is (as usual) get there early, get up the hill and get set up. Better to wait an hour on top and get a good flight than wait an hour in the LZ and miss it.

[Karl_A]

Sounding (1200 UTC = 0500 PDT) shows a good lapse rate up to 2750 MSL, winds W to WSW, windtalker says 9 WSW at 0820. Not an obviously great forecast, my guess is somewhat soarable mid day then cross from the north later.

CHANCE OF RAIN STARTING TONIGHT IN THE NORTH BAY

A RELATIVELY HIGH POP/LOW QPF EVENT

That's NWS for 'a good chance of a little rain'.

[Alan]

Not an obviously great forecast, my guess is somewhat soarable mid day then cross from the north later.

OK, I'm in. See y'all there sometime between 11 and 12. Looks a bit cold though.