Next Soarable Ed Levin?

[Karl_A]

Friday 2/10/12

BOTH THE 1200Z NAM12 AND OPERATIONAL GFS DEPICT THIS COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST LATE FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH BAY WHICH WILL SPREAD SOUTH BY EVENING.

Timing sounds good, predicted wind W 8 not quite the good direction but I think it might be more south than that. Not much of an inversion today and if it gets more unstable as it usually does when a front aproaches, it could be good.

[Karl_A]

Friday 2/10/12

Hard to call, no lapse rate on the sounding but afternoon wind W 11 gusting 18 so it might be good, might even be a Golden Eagle day, or maybe not. I'm going to give it a try, hope to be there by 9:30 am.

[PRGazis]

So, how was it, Karl? It looked quite interesting from the South Bay. Were you able to make it to Mission and Back before cloudbase came down?

When I look at this evening's NWS forecast, Saturday 11-Feb just seems to scream post-frontal (Mission, Tam, or early at Ed Levin if the weather goddess is unusually generous) while Sunday could be good just about everywhere. I'll probably take the HG to Mission Saturday and take both wings to Ed Levin Sunday, but we shall see...

[Karl_A]

Friday 2/10/12

It turned into maybe not due to too much cloud, though I did get 35 minutes out of it, which would have been a lot less but for a little patch of sun in the LZ that kept me up. It felt like even a little bit of sun on the ground would have made it soarable.

[Karl_A]

Sunday 2/19/12

Certainly flyable, maybe scratchable or even soarable in the afternoon if there is any sun to heat up the ground.

The Good - The road is open, no rain predicted until tonight, wind W in the morning, WSW in the afternoon, no inversion in the sounding.

The Bad - Sky cover prediction of 37% wildly optimistic - it looks like solid overcast from my house, wind velocity mild, 7 in the morning, 9 in the afternoon, 4 am sounding has top of lift at launch.

Nothing particularly ugly about this one except that 'Out Of The LZ Time' is 4:51 pm.

Report: There was sun, in fact, clear blue sky and bright sun, and it was soarable, if more challenging than easy. I launched at 2:10, headed for Mission, found a couple of thermals in the first canyons on the way, small and strong, got to Mission which was not that good, got below launch, groveled my way over to the roost in a weak, broken thermal, then finally got up and back to Ed Levin to find that the wind had died, it was nice and soarable and everyone was packed up and gone. Landed at 3:26 because I was tired.

[Karl_A]

Monday 2/20/12

Looks good, sounding says top of lift 3200 msl, very light wind S 2, recording (408 355-2200 7 6) says the road is open. It doesn't look that good right now at 8:45 am with low coud and wind N 9 but cloudbase just lifted above the top of the mountain and the wind is dropping. It could turn into a nice soarable day with a very good B/S (buoyancy/sheer) ratio. That means the thermals (buoyancy) will be smooth and round because there is no wind (sheer) to distort and break them up.

[Karl_A]

Sunday 2/26/12

At 11 am the Wind Slammer says 0-6 averaging S 3. I give up.

http://windslammer.hang-gliding.com/WindSlammer/

So much for forecasts. At 8:00 am Sunday the Ed Levin tabular forecast says wind NNW 8 in the morning, WNW 16-24 in the afternoon but current conditions according to the Wind Slammer are 23-38 averaging N 31. Doutbful it will even be flyable. Given the difference between the predicted and actual wind, the forecast seems to have underestimated the energy in this front, and the Forecast Summary says

MOISTURE IS LIMITED BUT INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE LEADING TO SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. AIRMASS COOLING WILL LEAD TO LOWER SNOW LEVELS REACHING AS LOW AS 2500 FEET LATE TONIGHT AND AS LOW AS 2000 FEET MONDAY MORNING ... GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. BREEZY/BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL EXTEND TO COASTAL LAND AREAS AS WELL.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... pe=digital

Check out the Ed Levin tabular forecast. At 8:45 am Saturday it says wind W 9 in the morning, WSW 15-23 in the early afternoon then W 20-29 in the late afternoon. Sounds like the day will start mild, get strong, then get even stronger. Might be a Golden Eagle day. Two strategies:

1. Launch Early. The Good - have a nice flight and land before it starts to blow hard. The Bad - sink out and land. The Ugly - break down while watching others soar.

2. Launch Late. The Good - easy to stay up. The Bad - launch and land in wind and turbulence. The Ugly - don't fly because of excess wind and turbulence at launch. The Uglier - wish you had landed before it got this bad because it is getting worse.

[Karl_A]

Tuesday 2/28/12

At 7:30 am Tuesday Wind Slammer says 12-16 averaging SSW 14, prediction still WSW all day, 7 in the morning, 11-18 in the afternoon, no rain till late afternoon or even early Wednesday morning. Looks good. I'l be there early.

At 5:30 pm Monday Ed Levin tab forecast says WSW all day, 7 in the morning, 11 in the afternoon. Will it be soarable? Can any of this forecast stuff be believed? Who knows?

MAIN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO PASS OVER THE BAY AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDS WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN LIKELY FALLING BEFORE 6 AM WEDS ... STEADY RAIN WILL END BY 10 AM WITH LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY ... A FAIRLY TYPICAL SYSTEM BUT BY THIS WINTERS STANDARDS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE.

Report: Looked grim on the way up to launch, dark with incipient rain, even a bit of drizzle as we were setting up. Launched about noon and it turned out OK, even if it did cycle from too much cloud and not much lift to a bit of sun and better lift. A bit bumpy with lots of shear due to lower wind NW and uppper wind SSW. Scratchy low, cloudsuck high. Got better later, good for Golden Eagle but with my truck in need of retrieve at the Ed Levin launch I was not willing to take that chance.

[Karl_A]

Friday 3/9/12

Seriously good lapse rate, -3 level aka top of usable lift a bit above 3000 MSL, light wind 5-6 Sw to WSW till late afternoon, sounds (according to the sounding) like a good thermal day.

[Karl_A]

Saturday 3/10/12

Not so good. Good lapse rate up to an inversion just above launch, wind prediction W 8 in the morning, WNW 10 in the afternoon. Lapse rate could get better as the day goes on and the front moves closer, but XC Skies is not optimistic, predicting top of lift about launch at 1 pm.

Sunday 3/11/12

Could be good, could be wet. XC Skies says top of usable lift almost 4000 MSL, tab forecast wind S 8 in the morning, SW 11-18 in the afternoon. The big question when the rain will arrive, tab forecast says 39% chance of rain, NWS Forecast Discussion says

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA ON SUNDAY FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD SOUTH ON SUNDAY INTO MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES AS WELL.